A decade following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the country and unleashed chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The team have examined the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author supports unification or the status quo. Each composes two articles that strive for impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the idea that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has got something to learn from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
